BLAST Open Lisbon 2025 playoffs preview and best bets

Playoffs team preview

Team Vitality

Vitality currently holds the #1 spot in Valve's rankings while remaining #2 in HLTV's world ranking. The team has won two consecutive top-tier tournaments and is now on a 14-match win streak, boasting a 94.1% win rate over the past three months. Vitality advanced to the playoffs without dropping a single map. With every team member maintaining a 1.00+ rating and a perfect 100% win rate on Dust 2, Inferno, and Train over the same period, this dominant squad shows no signs of slowing down in its trophy hunt.

Team Spirit

Team Spirit’s hold on the #1 spot is no longer as secure as it once was. After losing its Valve #1 ranking to Vitality, Spirit now clings to the HLTV #1 position by a narrow margin - less than 100 HLTV points separate the two teams. Whichever squad wins this tournament will cement its status as the clear leader.

While Spirit has suffered two recent losses to MOUZ, it has at least avoided Mouz in the playoff bracket. Spirit won't have to face MOUZ again unless both teams reach the Grand Final.

Natus Vincere

NAVI is currently going through a downturn. While it still holds the #3 spot in HLTV's world ranking, its Valve ranking has dropped to #8. In ESL Pro League S21, NAVI suffered surprising losses to SAW and The MongolZ. Now at BLAST Open Lisbon, Navi has been eliminated by Eternal Fire. This is clearly not NAVI at its most powerful - we'll have to see how much the team can adjust before playoffs.

MOUZ

MOUZ, currently ranked #3 in Valve's rankings and #4 in HLTV's world ranking, has earned the nickname 'dragon slayer' after defeating Team Spirit twice in recent matches. While not the top seed in the playoffs, MOUZ has established itself as a remarkably consistent team. Its stable performances led it to victory at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025, though it's worth noting the tournament featured fewer top-tier competitors.

The team also made an impressive run to the finals of ESL Pro League S21, taking down powerhouse teams like Team Spirit and G2 before ultimately falling to Vitality in the championship match. This consistency against elite competition demonstrates MOUZ's ability to challenge the very best in Counter-Strike.

G2 Esports

G2 has struggled since losing Nikola "NiKo" Kovač, falling out of the top five in both Valve and HLTV rankings while posting disappointing results in its last two top-tier tournaments. The team is currently being carried by Ilya "m0NESY" Osipov, who has maintained an impressive 1.30 rating over the past three months.

G2’s last encounter with MOUZ ended in a quarterfinal defeat at ESL Pro League S21. Now, as it prepares to face MOUZ again in the quarterfinals, the big question remains: Can G2 secure its revenge this time around?

Eternal Fire

Eternal Fire (EF) has broken into the top five of both HLTV and Valve rankings, boasting a 70% win rate over the last three months. After quarterfinal exits in its previous two tournaments, the team made a strong comeback at BLAST Open Lisbon. The team went undefeated in the group stage and took down powerhouse squads like G2 and NAVI to secure its semifinal berth.

EF will face the winner of MOUZ vs. G2 in the semifinals, and given its current form, it shouldn't fear either opponent.

Playoffs opening matches best bets

MOUZ (-176*) vs. G2 (+144*)

MOUZ’s recent form looks more promising than G2’s. The team hasn’t lost to any team besides Vitality since ESL Pro League S21. However, MOUZ’s map pool has a glaring weakness: a sub-40% win rate on Dust 2, Mirage, and Inferno, while the team’s win rate on the other three maps is significantly higher.

G2’s best-performing maps are Inferno and Dust 2, with it boasting over a 75% win rate on both. Map drafting will be crucial in this matchup. Ancient and Nuke are MOUZ’s comfort picks, while G2 favors Inferno and Dust 2.

Best bets: MOUZ Money Line (-176*) and Total Maps Over 2.5 (-103*)

Bet: MOUZ vs. G2 odds

Spirit (-235*) vs. Natus Vincere (+189*)

If this matchup had happened in 2024, the odds between these two teams wouldn't show a significant difference.

These teams faced each other at IEM Katowice 2025, with both securing one match win against the other. While Team Spirit currently faces threats from Vitality and MOUZ at the top, NAVI is also struggling through a downturn, suffering upset losses against non-top teams.

In this matchup, Spirit still appears slightly stronger than NAVI in its current form – especially with Danil "donk" Kryshkovets and Dmitriy "sh1ro" Sokolov maintaining impressive ratings of 1.44 and 1.22 respectively over the past three months.

Best bets: Spirit Handicap –1.5 (+1335*) and Total Maps Over 2.5 (+107*)

Bet: Spirit vs. Natus Vincere odds

*Odds subject to change

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