Chaos and Drama in the LEC | Winter Split Groups Preview

We take a look at the two groups of four and predict which teams we’ll see advance to the Playoffs.

Group A - Team Vitality, SK Gaming, Team Heretics, and KOI

In theory the less predictable of the two, Group A is surely going to be very tight.

Unsurprisingly, Team Vitality will be expected to advance first. The squad have had a fantastic season so far, with former LPL jungler Zhou "Bo" Yang-Bo living up to the hype thanks to his partnership with legendary midlaner Luka "Perkz" Perković. Meanwhile, toplaner Kyeong "Photon" Gyu-tae has put in multiple carry performances and Vitality’s bot lane duo have remained consistent.

However, in the third and final week of the regular season, Vitality struggled. It took a 54-minute slog for them to finally take down the already-eliminated Excel Esports and would have lost to Team BDS too after Bo was killed repeatedly if it wasn’t for Photon’s heroics.

They were also completely dominated by their fellow group members KOI - a team that was expected to challenge them for the title in the first place. However, after losing the experience of Andrei "Odoamne" Pascu the line-up that attended Worlds last year (as Rogue) looked a little directionless. Week 2 losses to Group A members Heretics and SK left them on a four-game losing streak and facing elimination.

Now, the team is back on track and having already beaten Vitality once, there’s no reason they can’t do so again and escape this group first. Especially if Kim "Malrang" Geun-seong is able to track Bo down and shut him down. All eyes will be on toplaner Mathias "Szygenda" Jensen but after his steady improvements already this year, I think he’ll be fine.

But before KOI can worry about Vitality, they have a very difficult series against one of the biggest surprise packages this year, SK. Most expected them to struggle to even qualify but instead, they came into Week 2 and defeated all three undefeated teams in Vitality, G2, and KOI.

Rookie ADC Thomas "Exakick" Foucou has been a revelation, topping the LEC for average kills (5.3), CS per minute (10.5), gold per minute (484), CS difference at 15 minutes (22) while his support Mads "Doss" Schwartz has the best KDA in the league (10.0) and toplaner Joel "Irrelevant" Miro Scharoll has the most solokills (7).

SK are genuinely scary and could qualify just as easily instead of KOI. On current form, you’d imagine that their bot lane will get the better of KOI’s but we all saw what Comp and Trymbi are capable of last year. SK’s midlaner Daniel "Sertuss" Gamani has had explosive carry performances but he’s going to struggle to find much joy against Emil "Larssen" Larsson.

Personally, I think that first series will come down to the junglers and how well the impressive Mark "Markoon" van Woensel can match Malrang.

And finally, we shouldn’t forget Heretics who could be real wildcards in this group - after all they did tie with KOI in the standings. The makeshift squad are still getting used to playing together and it’s no secret that they need polishing. But with the experience of Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski and the immense mechanics of Shunsuke "Evi" Murase, they always have a chance.

It’ll be a lot of fun if they get matched up against SK so we could see the battle of the ADC rookies as Jakob "Jackspektra" Gullvag Kepple has also been playing well.

I think unless Vitality’s mental deteriorates after their struggles last week, I don’t think Heretics’ impressive solo lanes will be able to get the better of Vitality’s. But from there, I think Vitality could struggle against both SK and KOI if they don’t remain sharp.

Group B - MAD Lions, G2 Esports, Team BDS, and Astralis

Moving onto Group B, it feels very likely that MAD and G2 will be the heavy favourites. However, it’s never that simple.

Just qualifying was a huge surprise for Astralis so reaching the playoffs may be too big of an ask. Still, keep an eye on Finn "Finn" Wiestål who was superb in Week 3. We all know he has pocket picks like Kled and Gangplank and he did superbly on the latter to keep Astralis in their game against SK until they eventually outscaled and won. He definitely can have game-changing moments as can support Lee "JeongHoon" Jeong-hoon but it’s still hard to imagine Astralis winning a series.

That brings us to the team that absolutely could shock the rest of the group, BDS. Like SK, they completely exceeded all expectations and have had an excellent start to the year. They’re one of just two teams who have beaten MAD this year and they gave G2 a run for their money as well.

The win over MAD was largely thanks to the sensational Darius game from Adam "Adam" Maanane. He deserves a lot of credit for how much he’s improved since his last LEC stint but his best games this year have come on his signature champions. His limited champion pool could be a huge weakness in Bo3 series but if he can still do well on backup picks then his ability to attract bans could be a huge weapon for BDS in these groups.

But my other concern for BDS is that their wins typically come from having to mechanically outplay their opponents and while they’ve been doing so very effectively, it’s hard to do so consistently. As we saw against G2, Juš "Crownie" Marušič had five early kills but their aggression cost them and his shutdown gold helped his opponents swing the game. I’m confident BDS will put up a great fight but I think they’ll make punishable mistakes this early into the year.

As for who will get the better between G2 and MAD, it’s difficult to call. MAD just beat G2 last week in a very clean game as the Lions worked superbly together.

Most expected a lot of deaths from a bot lane duo of Matyáš "Carzzy" Orság and Zdravets "Hylissang" Galabov but it’s remarkably been the opposite with joint-lowest (1.6) and second lowest average deaths (2.2) in their respective roles. At the start of the split, I also had doubts over toplaner Kim "Chasy" Dong-hyeon but last week he was superb and proved how reliable he can be by getting a kill and surviving in 1v2 situations twice versus Fnatic.

MAD’s consistency will be key. They have more than enough to get through but I wonder how they’ll fair against G2 who I think - narrowly - might have a higher upside at their peak.

We’ve seen some very dominant performances from G2 this year and they’ve mostly come from their bot lane. Steven “Hans Sama” Liv has constantly made big mechanical outplays against his opponents in lane but that’s largely thanks to the intelligent engages of his support Mihael “Mikyx” Mehle.

And there’s a decent chance G2 bring out surprise picks. We’ve already seen Rasmus “Caps” Winther bring out Zac mid and jungler Martin "Yike" Sundelin play Belveth. Speaking of the rookie jungler, Yike has had a phenomenal debut season already as his aggressive and skilful fighting has been a breath of fresh air on G2.

But how he matches up against one of the best junglers in the league,MAD’s Javier "Elyoya" Prades, could be key if these teams meet.

Again, I expect both MAD and G2 to advance but who will come out on top should they face off is near-impossible to call.